30 Kasım 2012 Cuma

Microarray Analyses of Inflammation Response of Human Dermal Fibroblasts to Different Strains of B. burgdorferi S.S.

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This interesting abstract just got posted on PubMed and is in PLoSONE:

Microarray Analyses of Inflammation Response of Human Dermal Fibroblasts to Different Strains of Borrelia burgdorferi Sensu Stricto

Schramm F, Kern A, Barthel C, Nadaud S, Meyer N, Jaulhac B, Boulanger N.

Abstract

In Lyme borreliosis, the skin is the key site of bacterial inoculation by the infected tick, and of cutaneous manifestations, erythema migrans and acrodermatitis chronica atrophicans. We explored the role of fibroblasts, the resident cells of the dermis, in the development of the disease.

Using microarray experiments, we compared the inflammation of fibroblasts induced by three strains of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto isolated from different environments and stages of Lyme disease: N40 (tick), Pbre (erythema migrans) and 1408 (acrodermatitis chronica atrophicans).

The three strains exhibited a similar profile of inflammation with strong induction of chemokines (CXCL1 and IL-8) and IL-6 cytokine mainly involved in the chemoattraction of immune cells. Molecules such as TNF-alpha and NF-κB factors, metalloproteinases (MMP-1, -3 and -12) and superoxide dismutase (SOD2), also described in inflammatory and cellular events, were up-regulated.

In addition, we showed that tick salivary gland extracts induce a cytotoxic effect on fibroblasts and that OspC, essential in the transmission of Borrelia to the vertebrate host, was not responsible for the secretion of inflammatory molecules by fibroblasts.

Tick saliva components could facilitate the early transmission of the disease to the site of injury creating a feeding pit. Later in the development of the disease, Borrelia would intensively multiply in the skin and further disseminate to distant organs.

Link: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22768217

Comments:

Take note of that last paragraph:
"Tick saliva components could facilitate the early transmission of the disease to the site of injury creating a feeding pit. Later in the development of the disease, Borrelia would intensively multiply in the skin and further disseminate to distant organs."
Do you think the implications of the above fit in nicely with the mathematical modeling of Borrelia burgdorferi infection cycles mentioned in an earlier entry?

Why or why not?

See:

Abstract: Population Dynamics Of Borrelia burgdorferi In Lyme Disease
http://campother.blogspot.com/2012/04/abstract-population-dynamics-of.html

The implications - for me at least - seem to fit a model where the first wave of infection dies off but then a bigger, immune-resistant subpopulation explodes onto the scene (the site of infection).

Awaiting PLoSONE to publish the full text so I can give a more thorough analysis...



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Commentary: Slate's Article On Romney & Lyme Disease

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It seems like over the past two weeks, every time I turned around, there's a new article about Mitt Romney and chronic Lyme disease. How much mileage from one topic can the media get? You would think by now they would have moved on, but today The Day decided it was going to post yet another rehashing about this subject.

Well, if they get to rehash, then so do I. I have some things to say in response to the Slate's article, "Why Is Romney Campaigning on Medical Quackery?", even though it's not the most recent in this set of offerings.

And again, I'd like to make one request of the media at large:

Can you please investigate more deeply the issue of people with persisting symptoms after delayed or initial antibiotic treatment for Lyme disease?

And not just spout out the same tired phrase that clinical trials to date have not shown that the use of long term antibiotics has been effective for the treatment of chronic Lyme disease (or what the CDC and other organizations call "Post Lyme Disease Syndrome")?

But I digress...

On to eviscerating the Slate...
"Let’s play doctor. A patient comes to you with joint pain, difficulty concentrating, anxiety, poor attention, and mood swings. You might run a series of tests to rule out a persistent infection or other disorder. If your patient lives in a tick- and Lyme-disease-infested area, you would be wise to test for the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and, if detected, prescribe a course of antibiotics. But suppose the tests come back negative and there is little evidence that your patient was bitten by a tick or was infected with the Lyme disease bacterium. If you are a good doctor, and you are, you might explore a diagnosis of depression, a disease that afflicts almost 10 percent of the population at any given time."
Okay, I'm going to respond to this with, "let's NOT play doctor", because it's not within our training and expertise to give medical advice if we are blogging or writing for online magazines and we are not doctors - or even if we are doctors, and have not actually seen the patient in question before making a diagnosis.

But as we are talking about some hypothetical case here - patient X - and not a real person, then I'm going to use patient X to discuss hypotheticals.

First, joint pain, difficulty concentrating, anxiety, poor attention, and mood swings can be indicative of any of a number of disorders. The doctor is correct to consider different diagnoses, and rule out or rule in anything which may be causing these symptoms. They can be related to some rheumatoid or autoimmune disorder, exposure to certain toxic substances, stress, immunological problems, and other conditions. Patient X may even have more than one condition which is producing these symptoms and need proper diagnosis and treatment.

I would not automatically leap to the conclusion that depression is the disease that is happening - and even so, depression can be a symptom of another underlying condition such as hypothyroidism, hormonal imbalance, or serious vitamin deficiency.

Let's reexamine this portion, and part of the succeeding paragraph:
"But suppose the tests come back negative and there is little evidence that your patient was bitten by a tick or was infected with the Lyme disease bacterium. [...] If you are a doctor who believes that the CDC and NIH have misrepresented carefully vetted clinical trial data about the diagnosis and treatment of Lyme disease, however, you might diagnose your patient with chronic Lyme disease and prescribe an intensive, long-term, side-effect-laden, mega-dose of antibiotics."
First of all, is clinical trial data about the diagnosis and treatment of Lyme disease the only data on which a medical practitioner should base their diagnosis and treatment of tickborne diseases in a particular individual patient?

The problem is this soundbite doesn't even begin to offer an overview of why a medical practitioner would think that maybe - just maybe - someone with a negative test for Lyme disease might still have Lyme disease. Or how it is that diagnosing Lyme disease can be a difficult task at times for any doctor.

The words chosen that follow - "prescribe an intensive, long-term, side-effect-laden, mega-dose of antibiotics" - reflect the judgment of the writer on how people with Lyme disease are treated without the writer actually investigating which antibiotics are used at which dosage for how long, nor how long-term antibiotic treatment for Lyme disease compares with long-term antibiotic treatment for other conditions, nor even what happens to those who have Lyme disease who do not receive long-term antibiotic treatment.

The costs and benefits of antibiotic treatment in general are not weighed and shared, so all it can be is a negative description of this treatment without investigating the long term outcomes of case-by-case studies of those patients who are either receiving it or where such treatment has been withheld.

On to another part of the article...

"As a Slate story pointed out years ago, chronic Lyme disease—not the persistent effects of a long-term bacterial infection but a collection of mysterious symptoms—has powerful supporters. Advocates for the diagnosis tend to blame the medical establishment for not taking them seriously enough."
Here I have a problem with this description of the condition, because it's not reflecting reality.

No one seems to really understand entirely what chronic Lyme disease is and what causes it. No one.

The CDC and IDSA have said that Lyme disease cannot become a chronic and persisting infection after a certain minimum allotment of antibiotic treatment, and offer up the hypothesis that any symptoms beyond this treatment are a (potentially autoimmune) condition known as Post Lyme Disease Syndrome (PLDS). However, this is a hypothesis, and thus far there are no treatment trials which put this hypothesis to the test.

If this hypothesis is so strongly supported, then why are federally funded treatment trials currently being conducted which are about providing evidence for Lyme disease as a persisting infection? Why is there a study currently recruiting which is entitled, "Searching For Persistence In Infection In Lyme Disease"? And why has another study been conducted in Europe, known as the "Persistent Lyme Empiric Antibiotic Study Europe (PLEASE)"?

This doesn't sound like the issue of what causes chronic Lyme disease's persisting symptoms is settled. If so, treatment trials which address this devastating autoimmune condition would outweigh clinical trials on Lyme disease. If one searches for clinical trials for treating Post Lyme Disease Syndrome, the total sum is zero.

To add to this, why is it that the researchers who completed the most recent research on persisting Lyme disease infection in non-human primates concluded this at the end of their recent publication, "Persistence of Borrelia burgdorferi in Rhesus Macaques following Antibiotic Treatment of Disseminated Infection"?:

"Our studies do however offer proof of the principle that intact spirochetes can persist in an incidental host comparable to humans, following antibiotic therapy. Additionally, our experiments uncover residual antigen associated with inflammatory foci. Whether persistent spirochetes or spirochetal antigen can cause PTLDS remains unanswered."

That chronic Lyme disease is a mystery is true. That one can readily come to the conclusion that it is not a persistent infection under any circumstances, in any situation, has yet to be established - just as these symptoms being caused an autoimmune condition has yet to be established.

But the content of Slate's article and that of others is very negative about the hypothesis of persisting infection without any specific evidence to strongly back an alternative explanation - or refute the evidence provided in a study such as Embers et al, above.

To continue...
"In 2008, the attorney general of Connecticut investigated the Infectious Diseases Society of America, a 50-year-old organization with more than 9,000 physician and scientist members, for misrepresenting the science of Lyme disease. Not to be outdone, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell assembled a governor’s task force on Lyme disease. He appointed Michael Farris as its chair. Farris is a lawyer and the chancellor of Patrick Henry College, aka God’s Harvard, whose motto is “For Christ and for Liberty” and whose “Statement of Faith” holds that the “Bible in its entirety” is “inerrant.” The school isn’t known for its biology department"
You know, we can argue this one until the cows come home. I honestly am not too keen that politicians are getting involved with medical debates - even though I as a patient want more recognition for my condition and more research for it.

What I want is more recognition from the medical profession, and for there to be programs put in place to help those of us with chronic Lyme disease. And what I really want is for someone with an understanding of the disease who has researched it extensively - and has suffered with it long term themselves - to come forward and represent me and other patients; to work from a desire to find the truth about what is causing our symptoms.

I do not need to see another advisory board, appointed chair, or politician try to defend my condition without a more intimate and thorough understanding of it. And I definitely do not need to see my condition being used in a political free-for-all from any side, from any party or special interest group, in order to try to gain more votes.

I find Slate's use of pulling out an appointed chair who is not big on science and who oversees a college with a statement of faith which holds the Bible as being infallible as being a diversion from the issue at hand: the issue of whether or not Borrelia burgdorferi can be a persistent infection.

All we see is an obvious character to take issue with if one is on the side of science and skepticism and wants an easy target to use to rail against the chronic Lyme disease issue... Of course those who are scientifically minded and skeptics are not going to take the word of an evangelical young earth creationist as being one educated about Lyme disease.

On the other hand, if we take one governor and one evangelical chair out of the picture, who do we have left that could have been interviewed instead? How about some scientists, for example? What about Dr. John Aucott of John Hopkins University, Dr. Stephen Barthold of UC Davis, Dr. Monica Embers of Tulane University, Dr. Straubinger, Dr. Brian Fallon of Columbia University, and others who have been studying Borrelia burgdorferi? They have nothing to lose by being asked for their opinion, being neither in politics, nor making money directly off treating patients, or nor working directly for the IDSA. Why doesn't Slate ask them about their scientific opinion on the cause of chronic Lyme disease?

But Slate doesn't do this. Slate goes for low-hanging fruit to support its diatribe against chronic Lyme disease - with the primary goal of denigrating Romney's attempts to appeal to voter subgroups and to support their characterization of Romney as being anti-science.

The mistake Slate makes is in conflating Romney's anti-science leanings with chronic Lyme disease as a condition which does not have enough evidence to support it. The two topics are issues which deserve independent examination.

Onward and upward...
"But the task force seems to have bought into the conspiracy theory that the infectious disease establishment is maliciously interfering with proper treatment. It states: “There is no scientific basis for concluding that 30 days or less of antibiotics is sufficient treatment for every case of Lyme disease.” Again, tell it to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."
I am not one of those people who will sit here and spout conspiracy theories. Refer to my page, What To Expect Here, if you have any questions. But there is the issue of oversimplifying and dumbing down the issues involved with properly treating Lyme disease - which is exactly what this article is doing.

It is not true that every case of Lyme disease is sufficiently treated with 30 days or less of antibiotics. Most acute cases are sufficiently treated with 30 days or less, but even when looking at the IDSA's guidelines themselves, they state that up to 10% of all acute Lyme disease patients experience treatment failures. These patients must be retreated and investigated for presence of tickborne coinfections. Also, a certain percentage of patients will have Lyme arthritis, which even Allen Steere treats with two months of oral antibiotics - and if symptoms are still present, a third month of IV antibiotics as well.

I can offer a number of cases where IDSA infectious disease doctors themselves have given individual patients with Lyme disease more than 30 days of antibiotics without thinking too hard, but cannot do so in detail because it would violate HIPAA practices. But these patients are out there, and have been helped by more than 30 days of antibiotics by patients treated by the IDSA's own specialists.

To add to this, there are those outliers with late stage Lyme disease and chronic Lyme disease who do not respond as well to treatment as early acute cases do. These patients have not been studied anywhere nearly enough, in part because fewer cases in these categories are diagnosed - but also because these patients' conditions are not as well understood or always as easily diagnosed to begin with because the obvious, early acute symptoms like a bull's eye rash are missing.

The Slate article continues...
"Another treatment point is telling: “We received substantial testimony from lay witnesses that they had been successfully treated with long-term antibiotics.” Pro tip: the plural of anecdote is not data. Just because someone signed up to address a public portion of the task force meeting does not mean their understanding or explanation of their own medical care is accurate or relevant."
I've said before that I know that the plural of anecdote is not data. And I understand that someone's own experience of their own medical care is not admissible as treatment for everyone.

But then, I've never made the claim that it was, anywhere... I've only made the statement that I think it is possible some people might need longer courses of antibiotics than the guidelines suggest are needed. How long, I think depends on the patient and their condition (genetics, underlying conditions, coinfections, etc).

But that is not for me to judge. I'm not a doctor, and we're talking about individual cases here... If IDSA doctors have the clinical leeway to make decisions to treat individual patients with more than 30 days worth of antibiotics and have it be covered by insurance, well, so then do other doctors - including my own primary care physician and someone who calls themselves an LLMD. The keyword in the document they published, after all, is guidelines.

If that's not happening and insurers are not covering additional treatment for patients when doctors authorize it, then that's an issue that Slate and other publications should be investigating.

To continue...
"I don’t mean to make fun of people who are suffering from what they think is chronic Lyme disease. Their symptoms are real, and they deserve help. But giving them a phantom diagnosis and making them part of a crusade to bring truth to medicine just perpetuates the idea that the symptoms they describe must be part of a complex, classic disease."
Look, this is all fine and good to hold this opinion. However, consider that I don't see enough evidence supporting an alternative diagnosis. The CDC, as you've cited, mentions Post Lyme Disease Syndrome. And yet, this is just a hypothesis and it has yet to graduate to being theory.

Just because the outcome of three clinical trials for long term antibiotic treatment on some patients with chronic Lyme disease showed that continued treatment did not permanently alleviate symptoms once treatment stopped does not mean that there isn't a persistent infection present.

And if Post Lyme Disease Syndrome is a genuine condition, with what may very well be its own genuine biomarkers for it - then as its own separate disease complex, it requires its own research arm and treatment for it.

Now Slate, are you saying PLDS doesn't exist, either, and you're going to flake on this illness which has scientific evidence to back its existence and call it depression?

Of course - because the next thing out of Slate's mouth is this:
"It’s much more likely to be depression, and depression is treatable."
Here we go with the depression, again.

Funny you should say this. Because I have had episodic depression. And I will tell you: Episodic depression was a fucking walk in the park compared to Lyme disease.

There simply is no comparison between the two, other than, well, having Lyme disease has made me feel depressed because it totally changed my life and not for the better.

Why would someone who could work full time at a high paying salary who had lots of friends and opportunity to travel the world a lot give that up to stay at home on the sofa with constant headaches and fatigue and hardly see anyone or go anywhere? To be seriously broke and give up on one's dream of owning a home?

The Lyme disease made me depressed. I don't have depression here as a separate clinical entity all on its own.

And depression, in my experience, never gave me a tick bite, an EM rash, high fevers, swollen lymph nodes, visible joint swelling, paresthesias, and a stocking and glove pattern of neuropathy on my feet.

I challenge you to ask any therapist if they think these symptoms are signs of depression. They'll tell you what they told me: "Your illness is not in your head; you have a genuine physical illness. See a doctor, but see me to deal with the depression that being ill can bring on if you need it."

And seriously... While taking antidepressants can help people with depression, if there is an organic cause for one's depression, such as infection, that needs to be treated first. One only needs to look at cases of psychiatric presentations of Lyme disease - however controversial they are - to at least ask if it isn't a possibility based on the patient's clinical history and limited response to common antidepressants.

Ask those chronic Lyme disease patients who have already taken antidepressants and have seen therapists just how well they have done. Ask. Quite a number of us have already tried exactly what some doctors suggested we do, when they thought we had depression and that is why we felt as crappy as we have. Either they're wrong, or partly wrong, or the drugs they prescribe us just aren't doing the trick.

Depression. Ha. If it is depression, well, then where are the clinical trials where antidepressants and long term antibiotics are used to treat chronic Lyme disease, so we can see the outcome? How about a third treatment arm with therapy alone? At least you'll give us patients a space of our own to swear at and curse modern medicine for not doing more for us.

There's more...
"As the CDC gently points out, mentioning other diagnoses that have been favorite catch-alls, “Your doctor may want to treat you in ways similar to patients who have fibromyalgia or chronic fatigue syndrome. This does not mean that your doctor is dismissing your pain or saying that you have these conditions. It simply means that the doctor is trying to help you cope with your symptoms using the best tools available."
And no one knows what exactly causes fibromyalgia or chronic fatigue syndrome. Obviously XMRV has been taken off the table as a cause for chronic fatigue syndrome - but some other virus or another agent may be the cause of this condition.

In any case, neither of these conditions have clear etiology, so you could be trading one mystery for another. None of which are well understood. And all of which are treated symptomatically, and all of which the drugs prescribed (with the exception drugs such as Lyrica, which is the first drug specifcally prescribed to treat fibromyalgia - which also has the unfortunate side effect of potentially causing suicidal behavior) are being offered based on an educated guess that they might work and, well, patient anecdote. They're prescribed off-label for these mysterious conditions of unknown etiology.

So how is treating chronic Lyme disease with antibiotics any different in this respect, until more research comes in on how to better treat it? Until we better understand the cause?

It may be that while long term antibiotic use for everyone with persisting symptoms may not hold up in small scale clinical trials that it may hold up in individual situations for particular patients with specific backgrounds - backgrounds which may not have been widely represented in the trials which have been held to date. Often it takes years for a wider population using a given drug or treatment regimen to expose its side effects and benefits - the outcomes are not always obvious at first.

And the last bit from the Slate:
"Disregarding my own advice about not taking an anecdote as data, I have my own story about chronic Lyme disease. A friend of one of my brothers had been suffering for years from headaches, fatigue, a sense of despair, a belief that she wasn’t worthy of her job or her boyfriend. She was diagnosed with chronic Lyme disease and was treated with antibiotics, which were ineffective. What she wasn’t treated for, and could have been, was severe depression. She killed herself."

I am very sorry for your loss, no matter what the cause. This is the tragic loss of one woman's life, and it may have been prevented.

I don't know, though, and I don't know the full story either way. I only have your anecdote.

She could have had undiagnosed Lyme disease. She could have had depression. She could have had something else entirely. She could have had more than one problem which included depression.

If depression is a concern, I recommend anyone with any illness see a therapist because in many cases therapy is equally as effective as antidepressants. And if that doesn't help, cautiously try out an antidepressant that is neuroprotective if no other biological or organic cause can be found for the depression. But certainly, if one continues to have the same symptoms while on antidepressants and begins an empiric course of antibiotics later and finds those symptoms begin to lift, well, then go with what works and maybe science does not immediately have all the answers. Sometimes symptoms which appear psychiatric in nature can have an infection as their cause.

So, anyway...

Whether or not persistent bacteria is the cause of all or some patients' symptoms, in my opinion, is still up for grabs. And at this point, many patients have either made the decision to ignore the results of the three small clinical trials which have been completed, or beg for more research on treatment to help us, or both.

I am a pro-science, pro-research person with a history of skepticism. I am skeptical about my own damn disease. And yet, no one has given me any particular advice in mainstream medicine or science as to what to do about it.

You might want to send your money directly to UC Davis or Tulane University for private research instead. But don't come kvetching to me that I'm running off to an LLMD because my primary care provider referred me to one.*

That's just more complaining - rather than addressing the root of the problem in the first place. Those of us in pain can only wait so long and do nothing for so long...

* True story.

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CO Comments on "The Pseudoscience of Chronic Lyme"

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During the weekend, Ed Yong, who writes for Discover magazine's Not Exactly Rocket Science blog, of alerted me on Twitter to Cassandra Willyard's blog post on The Last Word on Nothing blog - "The Pseudoscience of Chronic Lyme". Not wanting to pass up the opportunity to comment on some journalists' bungling of how to interpret the significance of the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) published study, Differentiation of Reinfection from Relapse in Recurrent Lyme Disease, I decided to stop by and read what Cassandra and others had to say and leave a few comments.

So far, commenters are asking good questions and pointing out some logical oversights in what we have read, which is constructive.

I don't know that I recommend it for casual reading for a number of chronic Lyme disease patients, though - particularly if you are in a headspace where you are currently very angry about your condition being treated dismissively and can't hold up to reading anything which is skeptical about the existence of chronic Lyme disease. But I will say that if you can handle it, it might be worth it to stop by and periodically read the comments.

So far, I've left two comments on Cassandra's blog in response to her original post and another commenter:

"I’ve been following the issue of chronic Lyme disease closely for a number of reasons, and anecdote aside, think that the situation surrounding the diagnosis and treatment of Lyme disease and other tickborne diseases is more complex than most of the media has led the public to believe.

I hear that Lantos – like Dr. Lawrence Zemel of the Infectious Disease Society of America – has more or less stated that half of those patients who claim they have chronic Lyme disease have no evidence of having prior or active Lyme disease. Lantos stated, “Only 7–31% had active Lyme disease and 5–20% had previous Lyme disease,” he writes. “Among the remainder, 50–88% had no evidence of ever having had Lyme disease. Most of these patients had either an alternative medical diagnosis or a functional somatic syndrome such as chronic fatigue syndrome or fibromyalgia.”

If this is in fact the case, then we are still looking at up to 51% of the patient population in this group as either having had Lyme disease or currently having it – meaning that up to little more than half of patients’ persisting symptoms do correlate with evidence of having Lyme disease.

It is this population of which I am a part of, having had a textbook case of Lyme disease – known tickbite in endemic area, an EM rash, flu-like illness, severe joint pain and swollen lymph nodes – the whole nine yards – only to be followed by years of ongoing symptoms I did not have pre-infection.

So, when someone brings up the pseudoscience of “chronic Lyme disease”, understand that I might get a little testy because it seems almost inevitably, the cases which are highlighted in skeptical discussions are those Lantos states do not have evidence of Lyme disease. Whether that is accurate or not, what about the rest of us? (Side note: chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia are problematic diagnoses in their own way, too, as they are of unknown etiology.)

I want to know as much as the next person exactly what has led to persisting symptoms. After doing the research on my condition to the extent I have, I’m coming to the conclusion that more research is necessary. I am skeptical about their being “sides” to this debate in the first place and also think science has not come to a full understanding about the process behind why we have persisting symptoms.

Embers et al’s recent study on persistence of Borrelia burgdorferi after antibiotic treatment in Rhesus macaques brings up the question of persistent infection after antibiotic treatment. More research is required on this, and persistence studies such as an NIH-NIAID xenodiagnosis study where patients with chronic Lyme disease are bitten by lab-raised ticks in order to see if they pick up the infection are underway. On the autoimmune angle for finding cause, Bockenstedt recently published a paper showing gfp concentration of Borrelial antigens in tendon* tissue in mice, and the hypothesis is spirochetal antigens cause persisting symptoms long term. See this Research Blogging blog post for more info: http://spirochetesunwound.blogspot.com/2012/11/inflammatory-spirochete-debris-left.html

So one cannot avoid that persisting symptoms after initial infection and treatment or delayed treatment is an issue; the research is there and being conducted on it.

But in the meantime, people are suffering, and voting with their feet: The vast majority of patients in my situation think there is something to the persisting infection hypothesis, and treat with long term antibiotics. A number of them recover and report improvement in symptoms while on treatment.

Yes, it is anecdotal – true. And it doesn’t support the outcomes of some of those small clinical trials which were conducted. But perhaps instead of dismissing them, someone could step in and collect the data on these patients (with their consent, of course) based on how they are currently being treated, what the patient base is and common factors of different subpopulations, and so on – and see if any commonalities float to the top? This could be informative, to study patients who have made the decision to accept this treatment and see how they fare."

And the second comment:

While I have not read the full text of the study yet, I agree that your logic path is one I traveled as well. An EM or “bull’s eye” rash is a key part of the case definition for acute Lyme disease – however, it’s not always present with infection, nor do all EM rashes signal the presence of infection.

Much of the media’s write-up on this study has conflated the existence of reinfection with the nonexistence of a chronic condition connected with Lyme disease – but it has also left out a huge chunk of the story about the significance of EM rashes in Lyme disease infection.

Dr. Jorge Benach of Stonybrook University has stated that if multiple “satellite” rashes show up weeks to months after initial infection, that the bacteria has disseminated. This may mean the patient needs a different course of treatment at this stage, so new rashes in this situation are important to separate from new EMs from a new infection.

Dr. Benjamin Luft has been doing extensive mapping of the genetics of different strains of Borrelia burgdorferi and has discovered some strains create a rash but no infection, some create a rash and infection, and some create no rash and infection. These strains can have varying targets within the body; varying levels of virulence.

And not long ago, Horizon Press published a book, “Borrelia: Molecular Biology, Host Infection, and Pathogenesis”, and it mentions big gaps in patient management around EM rashes: Some people who were screened to be subjects in studies were seropositive for Lyme but have never had ANY symptoms – whereas others went on to develop a case of late stage Lyme disease. (See pp. 501-502)

This is problematic for patients and doctors alike, who may have difficulty diagnosing the cause for the patients’ symptoms with no prior history/evidence of Lyme disease.
(Serology might help – but you have to suspect Lyme disease first.)

(As an aside, you might want to check out this discussion on Lymenet Europe: http://www.lymeneteurope.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=3856 – if only because of the references offered.)

So, I am concerned about the emphasis on rashes and think either one has to suspect Lyme disease based on other symptoms and potential exposure to ticks – or we need better testing… Solid direct detection tests would be great, but we don’t have one yet. I’m waiting to see what GMU does with its nanotrapping test development… It’s antigen based; hopefully superior to existing serological tests. But again: First one must suspect Lyme, and if there is no EM rash present, where do you begin?

* That should have been "joint" tissue, not "tendon".

When I wrote these comments for their intended audience, my goal was to focus on what by their standards would currently count as evidence they relied on in order to focus on the relevance of erythema rashes in infection. I avoided discussion of other issues I could have gotten into - such as the accuracy of early serological testing and differences in antibody response during infection - because my focused comment was already long and thought these topics were not as closely related.

One thing that has changed between the time I posted these comments and now: I now have a copy of the full text of the NEJM reinfection paper. So I am in the process of reading it, examining the data, and seeing how the authors correlate their findings with chronic Lyme disease. More later...

Edited to Add: When I talk about being skeptical about there being "sides" to the debate, what I am really meaning to say is that while two sides have developed over time, the only side that really matters is the truth.

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What Does The Reinfection Study Have To Do With Chronic Lyme or Post Lyme Disease?

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Last week, a number of media outlets wrote articles referring to a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), "Differentiation of Reinfection from Relapse in Recurrent Lyme Disease".

Since I wanted to see what was actually stated in the study, I acquired a copy of the full text of this publication to see for myself why the authors might have given some journalists the impression that chronic Lyme disease - or even post Lyme disease syndrome - does not exist.

Side note: One important thing to know is that at the time I wrote this entry, I had not read the accompanying editorial by Dr. Steere which was published in NEJM. Given that the current entry was written based only on the study itself and has gotten quite lengthy, I will be writing separately about the editorial in the future.

Summing it up

After reading through the paper, if I had to give a one sentence summary of what this study accomplished, this sentence at the end of it summed it up fairly well:
"These data, in conjunction with available clinical and epidemiologic evidence, show that repeat episodes of erythema migrans in appropriately treated patients were reinfections and not relapses."

If I'm to take it at face value, what this study does is provide evidence that when patients were properly treated early for previous erythema migrans (EM) rashes in the past and they presented with new EM rashes with obvious tick bites - they almost always contained a different kind of Lyme disease than one with which the patients had previously been infected. And with early treatment of patients found with new EM, most of those patients will go on to be fine until they are reinfected again.

Seems to make sense to me.

This is what the study appears to have discovered, so at first glance I had yet to see what the findings in this paper have to do with evidence that chronic Lyme disease does not exist. Nor did I see where this study provides evidence that post Lyme disease syndrome does not exist, either.

However, after digging a little deeper, I found one statement which suggested that data found in this study implied that chronic Lyme disease does not occur:
"[...] some persons have attributed recurrent episodes of erythema migrans to relapses in patients treated with recommended courses of antibiotic therapy; they cited experiments in animals that showed persistence of B. burgdorferi despite antibiotic treatment."
This was about as close as I could get to finding a statement in the study that chronic Lyme disease does not occur, as the majority of the content of the paper focuses on the fact that new erythema migrans are associated with new infections.

But one thing which I have stated before was that when it comes to Lyme disease, the rash is not the disease. The rash is a symptom of early infection. Untreated, it will eventually disappear. It may never recur during the same episode of infection. And in the meantime, depending on the strain one has, host factors, and without proper treatment, the infection will disseminate and spread to areas of the body far removed from where the rash first appeared.

Because the patients in this study were treated either during the first sign of cutaneous infection or very early disseminated infection, they were far more likely to have been successfully treated than patients for which there was a delay in treatment or patients who were improperly treated (say with a shorter duration, or possibly a less effective or an incorrect antibiotic) earlier.

Anyway, I have a few remarks on the paper:

On the significance of EM rashes under other conditions

One of the concerns I mentioned elsewhere after reading online article after article was that journalists had not mentioned how EM rashes were relevant not only as a symptom of early infection but at other points.

To some degree - and to my satisfaction - one paragraph of the study covered other reasons EM rashes would appear outside of the first sign of infection, and mentioned that an EM rash can show up and disappear only to reappear in untreated patients and also inappropriately treated patients.

This is important to note, and I would hope that family and urgent care doctors can use the presence and timing of an EM rash relative to other symptoms to determine when more treatment is required. Dr. Jorge Benach has stated that satellite EM rashes which erupt within weeks to months after the initial EM are a sign of disseminated infection.[1] Dr. Brian Fallon of the Columbia University Lyme and Tickborne Disease Research Center has also made the same observation.[2] Combined with other clinical evidence and symptom presentation, patients with these rashes may require additional oral or intravenous antibiotic treatment.

Patients with new EM rashes have been reinfected.

In addition to the summary statment cited earlier, one should take note of this particular passage in the study:
"Patients were treated with standard courses of antibiotics at each episode of erythema migrans, with subsequent resolution of the skin lesion or lesions."
The key words to keep in mind here are: "erythema migrans" and "appropriately treated patients".

This study is about early acute Lyme disease including early disseminated infection. The patients who were followed during the course of the study were all treated for signs of early acute Lyme disease - not late stage, persisting disease.

Based on this, I suspect the authors want readers to take away from their study is that these 17 patients who have an EM rash and are treated early in their infection have successful resolution of their Lyme disease - and any new EM rashes they have are a sign of a new infection which requires more antibiotics.

In other words: Early treatment is the key to greater success in treating Lyme disease effectively.

The value of finding different OspC RST types in different EMs.

The keystone of the study is the evidence that different OspC RST types are found in each episode of EM when patients are followed over time.

What does OspC RST strain mean? Citing a definition from an earlier paper:
"Two genetically linked typing systems, one based on sequence variation of outer surface protein C (OspC) and the other on ribosomal RNA intergenic spacer type (RST), have been used to classify US B. burgdorferi strains.

OspC typing divides B. burgdorferi strains into 21 genetically distinct types, 16 of which have been identified in the northeastern United States and RST divides B. burgdorferi into three groups.

RST1 corresponds to OspC genotypes A and B; RST2 corresponds to OspC types F, H, K, and N; and RST3 corresponds to the remaining 10 OspC types, including D, E, G, and I.

In the northeastern United States, infection with OspC type A (the most common RST1 strain) or OspC type K (the most common RST2 strain) accounts for approximately 60% of Lyme disease cases; and all of the OspC types within the RST1 and RST2 groups account for approximately 80% of cases. RST3, the least common type, is the most diverse, although infection with OspC type I accounts for approximately half of the RST3 cases.

Because RST typing of isolates may miss differences within groups and because OspC typing may lead to small groups, more information for clinical correlations can be obtained from the use of both typing systems."[3]
The above description of how OspC RST typing is taken from the paper, "Borrelia burgdorferi RST1 (OspC Type A) Genotype Is Associated with Greater Inflammation and More Severe Lyme Disease".

What is known not only from this paper but from many other papers is that different genotypes of Borrelia burgdorferi exist and may affect the clinical presentation of Lyme disease over time.[4-11]

And as time goes on, new genotypes are also found to spread hematogenously. However, it is important to keep in mind that just because a genotype can disseminate easily does not mean it is going to cause as much inflammation or have a particular tissue tropism.

For example:
"[...] However, when mice were infected by tick bite, as in the natural infection, RST 1 isolates displayed higher densities in blood, but the number of spirochetes in the heart or bladder was similar with either RST 1 or RST 3 strains (14). This suggests that in the natural infection, smaller numbers of RST 3 organisms, which may not be detectable in blood, are still able to spread to the joints and cause infection there. Consistent with this observation, the frequencies of B. burgdorferi genotypes in human patients in the current study were similar in EM skin lesions and in joints. Thus, it seems that all 3 RSTs have a similar predilection for dissemination, but larger numbers of RST 1 organisms are more often detectable in blood."[12 ]
According to research to date, the B. burgdorferi RST1 (OspC type A) genotype - followed by the RST3 (OspC type I) genotype - cause greater inflammation and more severe disease than other genotypes, establishing a link between spirochetal virulence and host inflammation.[ 3]

It gets more complicated from here. Researchers are still learning how these different genotypes and subtypes interact with their hosts and host immunity.

According to research (as is stated above) OspC type A RST1 and OspC type K RST2 account for approximately 60% of Lyme disease cases in the northeastern United States.

Judging from other publications, northeastern US OspC genotypes more or less break down into this list:

- Osp type K RST2 accounts for about 40% of that 60%.
- OspC type A RST1 accounts for 20% of that 60%.
- 20% of northeastern United States genotypes are mostly other RST1 and RST2 types.
- The remaining 20% are a mix of RST3 which is dominated by OspC I RST3.

That these different genotypes exist and have different pathogenicity is a fairly recent discovery and it is only just beginning to be understood.

More is understood about more common OspC types than less common RST3 strains which are highly variable and found less frequently in animal and human hosts. Additional research on these genotypes is needed.

So what kind of OspC RST types did patients have in this study on reinfection? It's a good question to ask, because if patients have genotypes of Borrelia burgdorferi which are more likely to lead to dissemination, then they (potentially) have a greater chance of invading more immune-privileged spots, such as joints, tissues, organs, and the central nervous system.

Based on a review of the overall breakdown of different OspC RST types in this study, they did align somewhat with previous research on northeastern United States genotypes.

OspC K RST2 was the dominant genotype found in skin, followed by a mix of OspC RST3 types then OspC RST1. That OspC RST3 types were more common than OspC RST1 differed from earlier research. Blood samples were somewhat different than those found in skin, with a combination of RST1 and RST3 types collectively outnumbering OspC RST2.

There are some data sets which were not collected during this study which I would have wanted to see. For one thing, Borrelia burgdorferi samples were not taken from synovial fluid or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) for OspC RST typing. We would also be missing any data from tissue biopsies as these are not routinely done, and are rather invasive for the patient. On the immunological side, the genetic backgrounds of patients with specific HLA-DRs were not revealed.

How this study does (or doesn't) relate to Chronic Lyme disease or post Lyme disease syndrome

Patients with early disseminated infection were said to have had fever, arthralgias, headache, or fatigue which were present during the first episode of EM. The authors expanded on this point over time, demonstrating that in these 17 patients, early disseminated infection and more invasive genotypes (such as ospC A RST1 or ospC I RST3) were handily cured with a prompt course of antibiotics and that any future symptoms would be related to a new infection and not a relapse.

Based on the OspC type data, the only way I can see that this study might be trying to disprove the existence of chronic Lyme disease is the authors' position that the evidence demonstrates that the same virulent strains found during the first episode EM rash that were treated were not present during the second episode in any patient. Therefore, by their deduction, the Borrelia bacteria did not persist in the time between EM rash episodes.

In their opinion, evidence of a relapse would have been shown if the patient's samples demonstrated that the same Borrelia burgdorferi genotype would be present during both episodes of EM.

However, is this the only conclusion one can draw from such a study? I have unanswered questions about it.

Can the genetic background and varying immune system responses affect the course of Lyme disease in host mammals? (I already know the answer is yes here, but what I know is mostly about animal models. Is enough known about this as it relates to people?)

How likely it is that an existing genotype of Borrelia burgdorferi found in tissues and CNS will migrate to the blood and EM rashes during ticks feeding on humans?

In the study, given that in two patients the genotype of Borrelia burgdorferi from one skin sample did not match the genotype of that found in blood during the same episode, is there a possibility that in a handful of cases, antibiotics could successfully treat the EM rash produced by one genotype while not successfully treating a more virulent and invasive genotype if the infection had advanced for some time without treatment - say to more remote tissues such as organs or the CNS?

Could a previous infection with a Borrelia burgdorferi genotype with specific tissue tropism coexist with the onset of an EM rash containing a new genotype?

What happens if a patient has previous infection in which no EM rash was present or seen and it goes untreated - then that patient acquires a new infection with an EM rash on top of the first infection?

I don't know the answer to these questions or how likely these scenarios are, but I suspect the last one I mention above is not entirely uncommon.

Either way, based on the patient background which is supplied in this study we cannot know because patients are reported as being treated successfully during the early stages of infection.

I also don't know how often it occurs that a patient has persisting symptoms after initial treatment for Lyme disease and a new erthyema migrans is never seen during the course of their persisting symptoms.

Given my experience as a patient, I can only make the observation that other patients in my situation seldom report seeing new rashes during the course of their condition. I think researchers should take a close look at the subset of those patients who are most severely ill and are housebound - they are an important subgroup to study because their odds of reinfection are very low.

Related to this, there is one immediate key difference I also see between the patient group studied and chronic Lyme disease patients:

The patient population in this group received a course of antibiotics each time an EM rash presented itself. Because they were treated early, presumably they had a good chance at recovering completely from their infection.

Chronic Lyme disease patients and their doctors alike report that many chronic Lyme disease patients' conditions are discovered late, and symptoms and serology often reflect those of late stage Lyme disease patients - not early acute or early disseminated patients.

It is this difference which makes me wonder about the applicability of such a study to a condition such as chronic Lyme disease or post Lyme disease syndrome.

Patients with late stage Lyme disease are less effectively treated with antibiotics and can be refractory to treatment; studies cited in the 2006 IDSA Lyme disease treatment guidelines indicate that a fair percentage of late stage Lyme disease patients do not fully recover after antibiotic treatment - though the reason why is not entirely clear.[13]

Development of an autoimmune-like condition has been hypothesized by the IDSA and various researchers as being the cause for persisting symptoms after initial infection, while other researchers suspect persisting infection might occur in some patients.

In the end...

The study provides evidence that in 17 patients who are properly treated with antibiotics shortly after EM rashes appear, their infections resolve and they get new infections.

If one supports a model of chronic Lyme disease and thinks that Borrelia burgdorferi can persist in the human host past initial treatment, then this study won't provide evidence either way as to whether or not this is the case:

Part of the definition of chronic Lyme disease hinges on patients having been treated late in infection and/or treated improperly early in infection only to go on to develop later stage Lyme disease in the future.

If one applies this definition, it is important to note that none of the patients in this study had a delay in treatment and proceeded to late stage symptoms before receiving antibiotic treatment. None of the patients were reported as showing signs or symptoms of Lyme disease between episodes of EM rashes; patients experienced only acute Lyme disease which was promptly treated. None of the patients were remarked as being part of the 10% of patients with acute Lyme disease who experience early antibiotic failure, either.[13]

The study participants fit the characterization of the majority of Lyme disease patients who successfully recover from Lyme disease with early treatment - but it does not characterize those patients who do not.

Conversely, if one supports a model of post Lyme disease syndrome, this study won't provide evidence either way as to whether or not this is the case:

None of the patients in this study were reported on followup after a six month interval after any EM rash and subsequent treatment as having developed symptoms indicative of post Lyme disease syndrome. None of the patients were remarked upon as having any particular HLA-DR associated with the development of antibiotic refractory Lyme arthritis - or any potential marker for post Lyme disease syndrome.

If patients have been symptom-free between episodes, this suggests that early treatment aborted the possibility of more serious infection, that patients had a genetic background which made it less likely they would develop antibiotic refractory Lyme arthritis, and/or perhaps early treatment in this small group led to avoidance of post Lyme disease syndrome as well.

Things I Ponder:

  • The good news: If the results of this study can be extrapolated to a larger patient base, early treatment of Lyme disease as soon as one sees a new EM rash is more likely to lead to a positive outcome for the patient.
  • The bad news: This study says nothing about patients who either neither see a tick bite nor get a rash yet begin show other clinical signs of Lyme disease. Doctors have no easy way of diagnosing these patients and current IDSA guidelines do not cover management of such patients.
  • Patients were treated during early to early disseminated infection, when they were most likely to have a positive outcome from antibiotic treatment regardless of the genotype found in their samples.
  • There is no information provided about the health and quality of life of enrolled patients. Do they have any preexisting conditions? Have they ever been diagnosed with any condition with symptoms which overlap with those of Lyme disease? How does one make the distinction between these conditions and any symptoms associated with any stage of Lyme disease outside of an EM rash?
  • The timing, method, and duration of antibiotic treatment for each patient for each episode was not disclosed. Did all patients receive a course of oral doxycycline, or did some with more disseminated infections receive IV Ceftriaxone? This could have an impact on having a positive post-treatment outcome.
  • Regardless of which treatment patients received, how can family and urgent care doctors apply the data from this study to their practice? Hopefully they will see an EM rash and treat patients immediately, but unfortunately this does not always happen in clinical practice as not all EM rashes are properly diagnosed. (e.g. ringworm, eczema, etc.)
  • If infections had advanced past the early stage, I wonder which genotypes would have been found in other sample types had they been taken (synovial, CSF, other tissues). Would they have matched earlier research in previous papers or would they have been different?
  • Over time, is there a change in the kind of genotypes which infect human hosts? Do these genotypes have a "competitive" nature? How much lateral gene transfer occurs?
  • This study applies to the northeastern United States and to infections from Ixodes scapularis ticks. It does not apply to tick bites from Lone Star ticks, which are beginning to outnumber Ixodes scapularis ticks in some areas of the northeast and may carry different infections.
  • The public needs to be reminded that different ticks can carry different infections and look for other symptoms of those which may not be EM rashes.
  • Babesiosis and Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever are two other infection which come to mind where prompt treatment is necessary.
Well, this is what came to mind after reading this study.

Any questions? Comments?

Next up: Reviewing Dr. Steere's accompanying editorial...

Citations:
1) Dr. Jorge Benach. Presenting at SB Southampton Dean's Lecture Series. Video posted Apr. 20, 2010. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR-aY_S8q2E Approximate Timestamp: 40:20. "Multiple EM rash is sign of disseminated Lyme disease and requires IV or parenteral antibiotics."
2) Columbia University Lyme and Tick-borne Diseases Research Center, http://columbia-lyme.org/patients/ld_lyme_symptoms.html Downloaded November 21, 2012.
3) Strle K, Jones KL, Drouin EE, Li X, Steere AC. Borrelia burgdorferi RST1 (OspC Type A) Genotype Is Associated with Greater Inflammation and More Severe Lyme Disease. Am J Pathol. 2011 Jun;178(6):2726-39.
4)Wormser GP, Brisson D, Liveris D, et al. Borrelia burgdorferi genotype predicts the capacity for hematogenous dissemination during early Lyme disease. J Infect Dis 2008;198:1358-1364
5) Wormser GP, Liveris D, Nowakowski J, et al. Association of specific subtypes of Borrelia burgdorferi with hematogenous dissemination in early Lyme disease. J Infect Dis 1999;180:720-725
6) Seinost G, Golde WT, Berger BW, et al. Infection with multiple strains of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto in patients with Lyme disease. Arch Dermatol 1999;135:1329-1333
7) Liveris D, Varde S, Iyer R, et al. Genetic diversity of Borrelia burgdorferi in Lyme disease patients as determined by culture versus direct PCR with clinical specimens. J Clin Microbiol 1999;37:565-569
8) Jones KL, Glickstein LJ, Damle N, Sikand VK, McHugh G, Steere AC. Borrelia burgdorferi genetic markers and disseminated disease in patients with early Lyme disease. J Clin Microbiol 2006;44:4407-4413
9) Wang IN, Dykhuizen DE, Qiu W, Dunn JJ, Bosler EM, Luft BJ. Genetic diversity of ospC in a local population of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. Genetics 1999;151:15-30
10) Dykhuizen DE, Brisson D, Sandigursky S, et al. The propensity of different Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto genotypes to cause disseminated infections in humans. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2008;78:806-810
11) Wei-Gang Qiu, John F. Bruno, William D. McCaig, Yun Xu, Ian Livey, Martin E. Schriefer, and Benjamin J. Luft. Wide Distribution of a High-Virulence Borrelia burgdorferi Clone in Europe and North America. Emerg Infect Dis. 2008 July; 14(7): 1097–1104.
12) Strle K, Jones KL, Drouin EE, Li X, Steere AC. Analysis of Borrelia burgdorferi Genotypes in Patients with Lyme Arthritis: High Frequency of RST 1 Strains in Antibiotic-Refractory Arthritis. Am J Pathol. 2011 Jun;178(6):2726-39.
13) Wormser GP, Dattwyler RJ, Shapiro ED, et al. The clinical assessment, treatment, and prevention of Lyme disease, human granulocytic anaplasmosis, and babesiosis: clinical practice guidelines by the Infectious Diseases Society of America. Clin Infect Dis 2006;43:1089-1134

Additional Resources:
  • An update on the diagnosis and treatment of early Lyme disease: "focusing on the bull's eye, you may miss the mark".
  • Detection of established virulence genes and plasmids to differentiate Borrelia burgdorferi strains. http://iai.asm.org/content/early/2012/01/23/IAI.06326-11.short
  • Crowder CD, Matthews HE, Schutzer S, et al. Genotypic variation and mixtures of Lyme Borrelia in Ixodes ticks from North America and Europe. PLoS One 2010;5:e10650-e10650. http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010650
  • Whole-genome sequences of thirteen isolates of Borrelia burgdorferi. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3028687/
  • Blog entry: Let's Not Be Rash About Erythema Migrans


  • Creative Commons License This work by Camp Other is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

Lyme Research Alliance Response To Reporting On Reinfection Study

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The executive director of the Lyme Research Alliance responded to the New York Times' article, “New Infection, Not Relapse, Brings Back Lyme Symptoms, Study Says” which refers to the Lyme disease reinfection study recently published in the NEJM:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/23/opinion/lyme-disease-study.html

(original text removed in observance of NYT copyright policy.)

Current Active Research Projects which are listed on LRA's site:
http://www.lymeresearchalliance.org/research_projects.html



For the most part, I agree with Mr. Wild's statement. I only have some questions about this sentence: "This limited study supports the theory that Lyme is effectively treated by one short course of antibiotics, yet numerous scientists vehemently disagree."

I would have phrased it differently and stated it as "This limited study supports the theory that Lyme disease is always effectively treated by one short course of antibiotics, yet numerous scientists vehemently disagree."

There is a body of research which provides evidence that Lyme disease is not always effectively treated with one short course of antibiotics - even the IDSA's 2006 Guidelines state up to 10% of early acute cases of Lyme disease result in treatment failures. Those same guidelines cite studies on late stage Lyme disease cases which are treated according to the guidelines, yet patients are recorded as having relapses and not returning to their former health pre-infection.

In addition to the guidelines, there are case studies, research studies, and individual patient reports of relapsing symptoms after initial treatment.

At the same time, not everyone who contracts Lyme disease goes on to have persisting symptoms after initial treatment. The reason why some patients develop chronic Lyme disease and some do not is not clear. A delay in receiving initial antibiotic treatment appears to play a role - and the genotype of bacteria infecting a given patient and the patient's immune profile may also play a role in development of persisting symptoms. More research is required to understand the cause of chronic Lyme disease.


Creative Commons License
This work by Camp Other is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

29 Kasım 2012 Perşembe

A Protester's Death Could Widen The Unrest In The Middle East.

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The Gaza Conflict Reverberates in the West Bank and Jordan

November 19, 2012 | 1818 GMT


Summary

A Palestinian who was wounded Nov. 17 during protests in the West Bank against Israel's ongoing operations in the Gaza Strip has died from his injuries, the Palestinian Ma'an news agency reported Nov. 19. The West Bank has been calm in recent years, but significant protests have been taking place across the eastern Palestinian territory -- which is ruled by Hamas' secular rival, Fatah -- in response to Israel's Operation Pillar of Defense. The protester's death could widen that unrest. 

These developments have implications in Jordan, where the regime of King Abdullah II is also struggling with political unrest. The duration of the Israeli-Gaza conflict will determine the extent of the brewing unrest in the West Bank and the toll it has on Jordan. 

Analysis 

The ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel has generated a significant amount of sympathy for Hamas in the West Bank. In some parts of the territory, anti-Israeli youth protesters have thrown stones and Molotov cocktails at Israeli security forces patrols. The protests, while at a low level for now, complicate matters for the administration of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. 

While the Arab Spring created conditions that increased the power of Hamas, it also added to the woes of Fatah, which has been deteriorating for some time. The group suffers from an aging leadership, internal splits, corruption charges amid poor economic conditions in the West Bank and a failure to make progress toward Palestinian statehood in negotiations. Thus, it is no surprise that Fatah, despite its deep animosity toward Hamas, has come out in support of its rival and in solidarity against Israel. Fatah likely chose not to interfere with the West Bank protests to avoid aggravating matters, but it cannot allow the protests to spiral out of control. 

Fatah is hoping that Hamas and Israel reach a truce as soon as possible. Indeed, the West Bank group is likely using its channels with the United States and Israel toward this end. Clearly, Fatah does not want protests in the West Bank to go from supporting Hamas and Gaza to turning against mismanagement in the West Bank. At the same time, this could be a reason why Hamas, which seeks a resurgence in the West Bank, would want to prolong the conflict somewhat. 

The stirring of turmoil in the West Bank is very worrisome for Jordan, which neighbors the Palestinian territory and is home to a large population of Palestinian heritage that harbors anti-Israeli sentiments. The ruling Hashemites do not want to see the Gaza issue spill over Jordan's borders and accentuate their own problems. 

Jordan's Problems 

The effects of the Arab Spring have not really manifested themselves in Jordan, but the kingdom has not been stable either. Since the outbreak of the regional unrest in early 2011, King Abdullah II has replaced three prime ministers in response to low-level but steady protests. The dilemma that the Hashemites face is that unrest has spread into the ranks of the tribal forces (aka East Bankers), who until recently have served as the bedrock of the monarchy's stability. At the same time, in urban areas, the country's largest political movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, has departed from its traditional role as the loyal opposition and begun demanding that the palace share power with parliament. 

Meanwhile, the economic situation in the country has deteriorated to the extent that the government was forced to cut fuel subsidies earlier this month. The public backlash to the rising energy costs has intensified the protests. In the early months of the Arab Spring, there were isolated cases of tribal youths chanting slogans against the Jordanian king and queen. Such instances of public criticism -- some even calling for the king to step down -- 

appear to be growing. 

Still, neither the rural-based tribal principals nor the urban-centered Brotherhood appear to be interested in trying to topple the monarchy. Indeed, both have made it clear that they do not wish to see unrest turn into anarchy. But the problem is that neither institution seems to have a monopoly over the protests; youth groups and other non-brand entities are driving some of the agitation. 

The Brotherhood, which has long called for the kingdom to cut ties with Israel, has once again raised this demand. Such calls have not gained traction in the past. But in the post-Arab Spring atmosphere -- and now with the conflict in Gaza -- the demand could become a tool for the Brotherhood to extract even greater concessions from the palace. Already, the king has been on the defensive, asking the Brotherhood to end its boycott of the political system and participate in upcoming parliamentary polls. Moreover, after restoring ties with Hamas earlier this year, the king has sought the mediation of Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal toward this end. 

It is too early to tell what domestic political gains the Brotherhood could obtain by leveraging the fighting in Gaza. But the king's persistently defensive approach could lead to apprehension within his camp about whether he has what it takes to steer the country out of its downward spiral. Any fissures within the ranks of the Hashemite state will lead only to greater instability. Over the longer term, instability in Jordan breeds the same in the West Bank, where the ruling Palestinian National Authority has been unable to resolve its own political problems. 

source: https://www.stratfor.com


Israel and Gaza: Then and Now

November 19, 2012Four years ago on Nov. 4, while Americans were going to the polls to elect a new president, Israeli infantry, tanks and bulldozers entered the Gaza Strip to dismantle an extensive tunnel network used by Hamas to smuggle in weapons. An already tenuous truce mediated by the Egyptian government of Hosni Mubarak had been broken. Hamas responded with a barrage of mortar and rocket fire lasting several weeks, and on Dec. 27, 2008, Israel began Operation Cast Lead. The military campaign began with seven days of heavy air strikes on Gaza, followed by a 15-day ground incursion. By the end of the campaign, nearly 1,000 poorly guided shorter-range rockets and mortar shells hit southern Israel, reaching as far as Beersheba and Yavne. Several senior Hamas commanders and hundreds of militants were killed in the fighting. Israel Defense Forces figures showed that 10 IDF soldiers died (four from friendly fire), three Israeli civilians died from Palestinian rocket fire and 1,166 Palestinians were killed -- 709 of them combatants.

The strategic environment during the 2008-2009 Operation Cast Lead was vastly different from the one Israel faces in today's Operation Pillar of Defense. To understand the evolution in regional dynamics, we must return to 2006, the year that would set the conditions for both military campaigns.
Setting the Stage

2006 began with Hamas winning a sweeping electoral victory over its ideological rival, Fatah. Representing the secular and more pragmatic strand of Palestinian politics, Fatah had already been languishing in Gaza under the weight of its own corruption and its lackluster performance in seemingly fruitless negotiations with Israel. The political rise of Hamas led to months of civil war between the two Palestinian factions, and on June 14, Hamas forcibly took control of the Gaza Strip from Fatah. Just 11 days later, Hamas kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalt and killed two others, prompting a new round of hostilities with Israel. 

In what appeared to be a coordinated move, Hezbollah on July 12 launched its own raid on Israel's northern front and kidnapped two additional soldiers, kicking off the month-long Second Lebanon War. As Israel discovered, Hezbollah was well-prepared for the conflict, relying on an extensive tunneling system to preserve its launching crews and weaponry. Hezbollah made use of anti-tank guided missiles, improvised explosive devices that caught Israel Defense Forces by surprise and blunted the ground offensive, and medium-range rockets capable of reaching Haifa. Hezbollah incurred a heavy toll for the fight, with much of the infrastructure in southern Lebanon devastated and roughly 1,300 Lebanese civilian casualties threatening to erode its popular support. Casualty numbers aside, Hezbollah emerged from the 2006 conflict with a symbolic victory. Since 1973, no other Arab army, much less a militant organization, had been able to fight as effectively to challenge Israel's military superiority. Israel's inability to claim victory translated as a Hezbollah victory. That perception reverberated throughout the region. It cast doubts on Israel's ability to respond to much bigger strategic threats, considering it could be so confounded by a non-state militant actor close to home. 

At that time, Hamas was contending with numerous challenges; its coup in Gaza had earned the group severe political and economic isolation, and the group's appeals to open Gaza's border, and for neighbors to recognize Hamas as a legitimate political actor, went mostly unheeded. However, Hamas did take careful note of Hezbollah's example. Here was a militant organization that had burnished its resistance credentials against Israel, could maintain strong popular support among its constituents and had made its way into Lebanon's political mainstream. 

Hezbollah benefited from a strong patron in Iran. Hamas, on the other hand, enjoyed no such support. Mubarak's Egypt, Bashar al Assad's Syria, Jordan under the Hashemites and the Gulf monarchies under the influence of the House of Saud all shared a deep interest in keeping Hamas boxed in. Although publically these countries showed support for the Palestinians and condemned Israel, they tended to view Palestinian refugees and more radical groups such as Hamas as a threat to the stability of their regimes. 

While Hamas began questioning the benefits of its political experiment, Iran saw an opportunity to foster a militant proxy. Tehran saw an increasingly strained relationship between Saudi Arabia and Hamas, and it took advantage to increase funding and weapons supplies to the group. Forces from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, along with Hezbollah, worked with Hamas to expand the group's weapons arsenal and build elaborate tunnels under the Gaza Strip to facilitate its operations. Israel soon began to notice and took action toward the end of 2008. 

Operation Cast Lead 

Hamas was operating in a difficult strategic environment during Operation Cast Lead. Hezbollah had the benefit of using the rural terrain south of the Litani River to launch rockets against Israel during the Second Lebanon War, thereby sparing Lebanon's most densely populated cities from retaliatory attacks. Hamas, on the other hand, must work in a tightly constricted geographic space and therefore uses the Palestinian population as cover for its rocket launches. The threat of losing popular support is therefore much higher for Hamas in Gaza than it is for Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. At the same time, operating in a built-up urban environment also poses a considerable challenge for the Israeli military. 

During Operation Cast Lead, Cairo did little to hide its true feelings toward Hamas. Though Egypt played a critical role in the cease-fire negotiations, it was prepared to incur the domestic political cost of cracking down on the Rafah border crossing to prevent refugees from flowing into Sinai and to prevent Hamas from replenishing its weapons supply. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, then in the opposition, took advantage of the situation to publicly rally against the Mubarak regime, but its protests did little to change the situation. Hamas was boxed in by Egypt and Israel. 

The rest of the region largely avoided direct involvement. Turkey was focused on internal affairs, and Saudi Arabia remained largely aloof. Jordan's Hashemite rulers could afford to continue quietly cooperating with Israel without facing backlash. The United States, emerging from an election, was focused on shaping an exit strategy from Iraq. Many of Hamas' traditional wealthy Gulf donors grew wary of attracting the focus of Western security and intelligence agencies as fund transfers from the Gulf came under closer scrutiny. 

Iran was the exception. While the Arab regimes ostracized Hamas, Iran worked to sustain the group in its fight. Tehran's reasoning was clear and related to Iran's emergence as a regional power. Iraq had already fallen into Iran's sphere of influence (though the United States was not yet prepared to admit it), Hezbollah was rebuilding in southern Lebanon, and Iranian influence continued to spread in western Afghanistan. Building up a stronger militant proxy network in the Palestinian territories was the logical next step in Tehran's effort to keep a check on Israeli threats to strike the Iranian nuclear program. 

In early January 2009, in the midst of Operation Cast Lead, Israel learned that Iran was allegedly planning to deliver 120 tons of arms and explosives to Gaza, including anti-tank guided missiles and Iranian-made Fajr-3 rockets with a 40-kilometer (25-mile) range and 45-kilogram (99-pound) warhead. The Iranian shipment arrived at Port Sudan, and the Israeli air force then bombed a large convoy of 23 trucks traveling across Egypt's southern border up into Sinai. Though Israel interdicted this weapons shipment -- likely with Egyptian complicity -- Iran did not give up its attempts to supply Hamas with advanced weaponry. The long-range Fajr rocket attacks targeting Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in the current conflict are a testament to Iran's continued effort.

The Current Geopolitical Environment 

Hamas and Israel now find themselves in a greatly altered geopolitical climate. On every one of its borders, Israel faces a growing set of vulnerabilities that would have been hard to envision at the time of Operation Cast Lead. 

The most important shift has taken place in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood carefully used the momentum provided by the Arab Spring to shed its opposition status and take political control of the state. Hamas, which grew out of the Muslim Brotherhood, then faced an important decision. With an ideological ally in Cairo, Egypt no longer presents as high a hurdle to Hamas' political ambitions. Indeed, Hamas could even try to use its ties to the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood to achieve political legitimacy. When unrest spread into Syria and began to threaten Iran's position in the Levant, Hamas made a strategic decision to move away from the Iran-Syria axis, now on the decline, and to latch itself onto the new apparent regional trend: the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and its Islamist affiliates across the Arab world. 

This rise of the Muslim Brotherhood spread from Egypt to Syria to Jordan, presenting Israel with a new set of challenges on its borders. Egypt's dire economic situation, the political unrest in its cities, and the Muslim Brotherhood's uneasy relationship with the military and security apparatus led to a rapid deterioration in security in Sinai. Moreover, a Muslim Brotherhood government in Cairo on friendly terms with Hamas could not be trusted to crack down on the Gaza border and interdict major weapons shipments. A political machine such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which derives its power from the street, will be far more sensitive to pro-Palestinian sentiment than will a police state that can rule through intimidation. 

In Syria, Israel has lost a predictable adversary to its north. The balkanization of the Levant is giving rise to an array of Islamist forces, and Israel can no longer rely on the regime in Damascus to keep Hezbollah in check for its own interests. In trying to sustain its position in Syria and Lebanon, Iran has increased the number of its operatives in the region, bringing Tehran that much closer to Israel as both continue to posture over a potential strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. 

To Israel's east, across the Jordan River valley, pressure is also growing on the Hashemite kingdom. An emboldened Muslim Brotherhood has been joined by disillusioned tribes from the East Bank in openly calling for the downfall of the king. High energy costs are severely blunting the kingdom's ability to contain these protests through subsidies, and the growing crisis in Gaza threatens to spread instability in the West Bank and invigorate Palestinians across the river in Jordan. 

Beyond its immediate periphery, Israel is struggling to find parties interested in its cause. The Europeans remain hostile to anything they deem to be excessive Israeli retaliation against the Palestinians. Furthermore, they are far too consumed by the fragmentation of the European Union to get involved with what is happening in the southern Levant. 

The United States remains diplomatically involved in trying to reach a cease-fire, but as it has made clear throughout the Syrian crisis, Washington does not intend to get dragged into every conflagration in the Middle East. Instead, the United States is far more interested in having regional players like Egypt and Turkey manage the burden. The United States can pressure Egypt by threatening to withhold financial and military aid. In the case of Turkey, there appears to be little that Ankara can do to mediate the conflict. Turkish-Israeli relations have been severely strained since the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident. Moreover, although the Turkish government is trying to edge its way into the cease-fire negotiations to demonstrate its leadership prowess to the region, Ankara is as wary of appearing too close to a radical Islamist group like Hamas as it is of appearing in the Islamic world as too conciliatory to Israel. 

Saudi Arabia was already uncomfortable with backing more radical Palestinian strands, but Riyadh now faces a more critical threat -- the regional rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. Islamist political activism poses a direct threat to the foundation of the monarchy, which has steadfastly kept the religious establishment out of the political domain. Saudi Arabia has little interest in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood encouraging Hamas' political rise, and Riyadh will thus become even more alienated from the Palestinian theater. Meanwhile Gulf state Qatar, which has much less to lose, is proffering large amounts of financial aid in a bid to increase its influence in the Palestinian territories. 

Iran, meanwhile, is working feverishly to stem the decline of its regional influence. At the time of Operation Cast Lead, Iran was steadily expanding its sphere of influence, from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean. A subsequent U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf and an intensifying U.S.-led economic warfare campaign slowed Iran down, but it was the decline of the al Assad regime that put Iran on the defensive. An emboldened Sunni opposition in Syria, backed by the West, Turkey and the Arab Gulf states, could spill into Lebanon to threaten Hezbollah's position and eventually threaten Iran's position in Iraq. With each faction looking to protect itself, Iran can no longer rely as heavily on militant proxies in the Levant, especially Palestinian groups that see an alignment with Iran as a liability in the face of a Sunni rebellion. But Iran is also not without options in trying to maintain a Palestinian lever against Israel. 

Hamas would not be able to strike Tel Aviv and Jerusalem with long-range rockets had it not been for Iran, which supplied these rockets through Sudan and trained Palestinian operatives on how to assemble them in Gaza. Even if Hamas uses up its arsenal of Fajr-5s in the current conflict and takes a heavy beating in the process, Iran has succeeded in creating a major regional distraction to tie down Israel and draw attention away from the Syrian rebellion. Iran supplied Hezbollah with Zelzal rockets capable of reaching Haifa during the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Hamas was limited to shorter-range Qassam and Grad rockets in Operation Cast Lead but now has Iranian-made Fajr-5s to target Israel's most cherished cities. 

Hamas is now carrying the mantle of resistance from Hezbollah in hopes of achieving a symbolic victory that does not end up devastating the group in Gaza. Israel's only hope to deny Hamas that victory is to eliminate Hamas' arsenal of these rockets, all the while knowing that Iran will likely continue to rely on Egypt's leniency on the border to smuggle more parts and weaponry into Gaza in the future. The Hamas rocket dilemma is just one example of the types of problems Israel will face in the coming years. The more vulnerable Israel becomes, the more prone it will be to pre-emptive action against its neighbors as it tries to pick the time and place of battle. In this complex strategic environment, Operation Pillar of Defense may be one of many similar military campaigns as Israel struggles to adjust to this new geopolitical reality. 
source: https://www.stratfor.com



A Pause for Negotiations in the Israeli-Hamas Conflict

November 18, 2012By George FriedmanThe Israeli-Hamas conflict has entered into a negotiation phase. Both sides want talks. Hamas wants them because any outcome that prevents an Israeli ground assault gives it the opportunity to retain some of its arsenal of Fajr-5 rockets; the Israelis want them because the cost of an invasion could be high, and they recall the political fallout of Operation Cast Lead in 2008, which alienated many European and other governments.No matter how much either side might want to avoid ground warfare, negotiations are unlikely to forestall an Israeli assault because Hamas' and Israel's goals leave little middle ground.One of Hamas' main goals in this current round of fighting is to retain enough Fajr-5 rockets to allow it to threaten the Israeli heartland, the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem corridor. If they succeed, Hamas will have gained a significant lever in its relations with the Israelis. The Israeli goal is to deny Hamas these rockets. The problem for the Israelis is that this requires a ground assault in order to have any chance of success. The Israelis may think they know where the rockets are, but they cannot be certain. Airstrikes can target known facilities, at least those where rockets are not stored in hardened underground bunkers. But only by going in on the ground with substantial force will the Israelis have the opportunity to search for and destroy the rockets.Finding middle ground will be difficult. The retention of the Fajr-5 both dramatically improves Hamas' strategic position and gives Hamas the chance to further weaken the Palestinian National Authority. Hamas cannot agree to any deal that takes the rockets away -- or that does not at least leave open the possibility that it could have them. Meanwhile, Israel simply cannot live with the Fajr-5 in the hands of Hamas.

Lack of International Involvement

It is interesting to note the remarkable indifference of most countries that normally rush to mediate such disputes, the United States chief among them. Washington has essentially endorsed the Israeli position so strongly that it has no option to mediate. The Turks, who had been involved with the Gaza issue during the flotilla incident of May 2010, have taken no steps beyond rhetoric in spite of relations with both Hamas and Israel. The Saudis have also avoided getting involved.The Egyptians have been the most active in trying to secure a cease-fire: Beyond sending their prime minister into Gaza on Nov. 16, as well as their intelligence chief and a group of security officials, Cairo then hosted a delegation of senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad members to further this goal. But while the Egyptians have a great interest in preventing an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza and are crucial to the Israeli imperative to prevent weapons smuggling via Gaza, there is little more they can do at present to mediate between the two sides.If no one seems to want to serve as mediator, it is because there is such little room for negotiation. It is not ideology but strategy that locks each side into place. Hamas has come this far and does not want to give up what it has maneuvered for. Israel cannot allow Hamas a weapon that threatens the Israeli heartland. This situation is too serious for the parties to reach an agreement that ends the hostilities for now but in reality simply pushes back the issues to be addressed later. No one is eager to mediate a failure. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon has said he will go to Gaza in the coming week, but he will not be in a position to find middle ground.Israel will not budge on this. Hamas could be compelled to relent under threat from its core financial supporters in the Arabian Peninsula, but these states, such as Qatar, are all far more concerned with the threat posed by Iran. The fact that these rockets likely originated with Iran ought to give them incentive to lean on Hamas.

Dubious Prospects for Negotiations

It is important to bear in mind that the war is already under way. Israeli airstrikes are intense and continuous. Hamas is firing rockets at Israel. What has not yet happened is a direct ground attack on Gaza by the Israelis, although they have been mobilizing forces and should now be in a position to attack if they so choose. But the Israelis would much rather not attack. They fear the consequences -- measured both in human casualties and in political fallout -- that would certainly follow.Thus, both sides want a negotiated end on terms that would leave the other side in an impossible position. While Hamas might be able to live with the status quo, Israel cannot. A negotiated end is therefore unlikely. Still, both sides are signaling their willingness to talk, and however forlorn the possibilities, there is a chance that something could be arranged.We remain of the opinion that this current pause will be followed by a ground assault. Only by expanding the discussion beyond the Fajr-5 to a broader settlement of Hamas-Israeli issues could these negotiations succeed, but that would require Hamas recognizing Israel's right to exist and Israel accepting the equivalent of a Palestinian state run by Hamas in Gaza -- one that might spread its power to the West Bank. The more expansive the terms of these negotiations get, the more dubious their prospects for success -- and these negotiations start off fairly dubious as it is.Read more: A Pause for Negotiations in the Israeli-Hamas Conflict | Stratfor